Strong growth in supply and low demand has driven the price of pork down from its recent high-flying prices, according to the latest quarterly report from Rabobank.
Rabobank said the growth in supply is being led by the US, Russia and Brazil which has outpaced demand and dragged producer profitability into negative territory.
“The increasing competition in the global export market will result in continuous price and margin pressure in most countries around the globe,” said Albert Vernooij, Rabobank animal protein analyst. “Therefore, after the buoyant—at least price-wise—last couple of years, the global pork industry is slowly moving towards the bottom of the cycle."
Rabobank’s outlook for global and regional markets:
In the US, as supply recovers after PEDv, the question is as to what degree recovery will be coupled with the strengthening US dollar and lower prices.
In the EU, prices will follow seasonal developments, but will remain lower than the historical average and below break-even level.
With the industry slowly improving, prices bottomed out in China during March.
Brazilian prospects remain positive, but less buoyant than in Q1, driven by pressured domestic consumption and difficult Russian export negotiations.