“Our goal is to help make sure food products are safe from farm to fork by identifying food supply chain designs that ensure a high level of system productivity while mitigating the risks posed by intentional attacks on the food supply chain,” says Erera.

The model’s first application determines vulnerabilities in the supply chain for liquid eggs. Researchers tested adaptability scenarios including reducing the amount of liquid egg in each tank, housing the liquid egg in several facilities instead of just one, increasing the frequency of tank cleanings, changing the timing of certain activities and increasing security.

Each strategy has its advantages and drawbacks. For example, while reducing the amount of egg per container could decrease the total potential contamination, it would likely drive production costs higher. And while spreading operations out between multiple smaller facilities could also decrease the potential for large-scale contamination, production and security costs would tick up.

Erera’s team wants to find a way to significantly mitigate risk in the supply chain with only a small investment. To do that, they will continue to improve the model’s accuracy by studying other food products. Eventually, researchers hope to make recommendations for different industries about how best to protect products against a terrorist attack.